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FANTASY INBOX: BREES OR LUCK?
published 12/31/12 4:14pm
Photo: Ray Carlin / Icon SMI
BREES OR LUCK?
Q: I was lucky enough to land Drew Brees and Andrew Luck as my two starting quarterbacks in my keeper league this season Colin Kaepernick being my third stringer) but I can only protect one for next year. I'm leaning toward Luck. Do you agree?
Rex Y. (Toledo, Ohio )
FI: Lucky, you say, Rex? You had two of the most productive quarterbacks in the league in 2012 in your lineup and you're now facing an interesting dilemma. First off, despite all the controversy that highlighted the Saints' season (the bounty scandal, which led to four straight losses to open the season), the ageless Brees was still among the best QB's in 2012 and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down (aside from that horrible five-interception game against the Falcons in Week 12, but all players have bad games once in a while). On the other hand, and since you're favoring Luck, we have to be cautious in his case. He did fairly well as a rookie (21 touchdowns and over 4,000 passing yards) and steadily progressed as the season went on, but he remains somewhat unproven as a fantasy producer. Can he do better than Brees in 2013? Likely not but since you're in a keeper league, we would stick with Luck (who will be a blue chipper down the road--sooner rather than later). Good (Andrew) Luck!
CAN MEGATRON KEEP IT UP?
Q: I was expecting big things from Calvin Johnson this season but certainly not the monster numbers he delivered on the field. Do you think he'll produce similar stats in 2013?
Paul (New York)
FI: Paul, Johnson indeed set a new record for the most receiving yards in a single season (besting Jerry Rice's old record of 1,848 yards set in 1995 with the 49ers). He's definitely a yardage monster, as you say, and is definitely entering the peak of his career, but his 2012 touchdown total is a bit worrisome as he has only five heading into Week 17 (after finding the end zone 16 times in 2012 and 12 times in 2011). That being said, he remains Matthew Stafford's favorite target and league elite in terms of yardage, but just be cautious: as you know, touchdowns pay more than receiving yards in most fantasy leagues. He needs to find pay dirt more often next season.
TOP FANTASY DRAFT PICK IN 2013
Q: Who's the top fantasy player that should go No. 1 overall in my draft next season?
Joe B. (Fairbanks, Alaska)
FI: That's THE question, Joe. Of course, the answer depends on the scoring system in place in your fantasy league but several players can fit well as top overall. Since quarterbacks are usually the first players selected in most fantasy drafts, we'll concentrate more on them here with the usual suspects. Drew Brees had a great season but he's not getting any younger and the same applies for Tom Brady and the rejuvenated Peyton Manning. Considering all that, we would favor Robert Griffin III. Despite his young age, he can really do it all on the field and proved it during his rookie season (20 touchdown passes and six rushing touchdowns). Moreover, the Redskins' offensive system is perfect for him. Carolina's Cam Newton (who has the same qualities as RG3) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (who's entering his prime) aren't bad picks, either. For non-quarterbacks, the only other option would be Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. He's as steady as they come, is clutch and the Minny offense is built around him. He's definitely an option. Happy drafting!
ANY GEMS IN THE 2013 NFL DRAFT
The draft is far away but do you expect any prospects that may have a notable fantasy impact right away in the NFL in 2013? Thanks!
Duff W. (Stouffville, Ontario )
FI: From a fantasy standpoint, Duff, next April's draft is very hard to predict. One thing we can say, though, is this: don't expect much at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for impact players. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith (who was highly considered these past few months) has seen his draft stock drop lately. Matt Barkley, another quarterback (from Southern California) is tagged as a first rounder but won't make an impact right away and forget about Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel, since he's not eligible for the draft. California's Keenan Allen and West Virginia's Tavon Austin are the top-ranked wideouts but neither of them are likely to be a factor in 2013. Also forget running backs: this year's class isn't deep at all. So don't expect much.
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